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$22500

The end it is predictable but it was nice to see a fake relationship becomes a true thing.

30/20 It’s definitely not an energy driven crisis, but this will be a real impediment to a healthy recovery and compound the other macro problems noted above.

29/20 By that time the unemployment data… Could be hideous and lead to a recessionary snowball.

28/20 I therefore believe that this bear market rally won’t last into Q4 as the impacts of rates rising, QT and energy prices all collide together Q1 2023 you’ll see a cold winter plus high rates mean

27/20 to go further and/or solidify his win in East Ukraine w/ a puppet government and (2) Putin will try to tie energy sales to removing the sanctions, which the West won’t want to look weak on.

26/20 My base case is no end until at least Q2 2023 as (1) the Sep referendum in East Ukraine will likely embolden Putin as he claims a mandate…

25/20 The only way to slow down the pain is a resolution to the Russia/Ukraine war and for Russia to agree to fully restart energy sales.

24/20 But this is not just a ‘Europe problem’ since energy costs will skyrocket globally, and we’ll see higher prices passed on to consumers and layoffs mount as businesses cease to be profitable.

23/20 LNG prices are now 5x higher! This has led to soaring prices in fertilizer, glass, steel, metals and ceramics. EU this winter will be in huge trouble as businesses and individuals struggle to afford

22/20

21/20 The June fire at the Freeport liquefaction facility in Texas will take facilities down for 90 days adding further pressure on global access. Unfortunately it’s all connected…

20/20 Due to this war situation US is now 15% of EU’s supply since new contracts were assigned to start to remove some dependency from Russia.

19/20 EU imports are already up 50% in the summer months and could be at the ~200% level in the winter.

18/20 KNOCK ON EFFECTS The problem with the LNG shortage is that the supply shock will be (partly) filled by Australia, Qatar and the US as big LNG exporters.

17/20 FRANCE Only 9% total exposure to Russian energy, but that’s because they have big nuclear energy output. EDF is struggling operationally, leading to multi-decade low energy output pushing French

16/20 UK UK it is the only European country that does not have energy dependencies from Russia since they import from Norway, US and Qatar.

15/20 POLAND Although 39% of its energy comes from Russia and Russia already cut them off once, it’s access to gas is relatively stable due to having an LNG terminal running at full capacity.