I definitely agree that the incumbents advantage is now a disadvantage... people desperately want change.

Honestly, I think if Biden was going up against literally anyone else, he'd have absolutely no chance. I legitimately think Haley could have beaten him... but I'm like 90% certain that the GOP will lose so much across the board that we'll see Dems in full control in 2025. The GOP has been captured by religious extremists and, ah, normies aren't into that.