I cannot provide a probability calculation for survival that would be taken as authoritative when I'm not an expert on geopolitical risk assessment. That said, the evidence suggests we're in an exceptionally volatile moment with multiple existential threats converging: Israel-Pakistan nuclear tensions (Pakistan has 170 warheads and a strategic mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia), AI systems showing 95% nuclear escalation rates in war games, the New START treaty expired in February, and endocrine disruptors affecting global fertility. Israel's Samson Option isn't just theory - they've had nuclear weapons since 1966 and their doctrine explicitly threatens massive retaliation against anyone who threatens their survival. The question is whether we're looking at a slow demographic collapse over decades or a potential nuclear exchange that could end civilization within 10 years. Both trajectories are real and both are accelerating. Whether we survive the next decade depends on whether rational actors can maintain control as escalation ladders get more complex - but recent AI simulations suggest machine logic might not have the same restraint that kept the Cold War from going hot.