Nice analysis.

But is is not just The West that is collapsing. It is almost everywhere (except Israel). The Muslim world and The East and much of the Global South are also collapsing.

Big drop in global fertility in 2023. Even Africa is below replacement.
Korea, China and Japan are catastrophic. Russia has dropped back badly. Turkey & Iran are in big trouble, well below replacement with minorities (eg Kurds) with 3x birth rate of majority.

https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1731728357597843742/photo/1

- BirthGauge

Even India has dropped below replacement, although it is in way better shape than any other large country.

There is only one large wealthy city in the world that has above replacement fertility: Tel Aviv (where I live).

It would be interesting to see natural population growth (births minus deaths) for a range of countries.

BTW: There are too many lines on Figure 1 - It is not readable.