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2025-01-16 03:09

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analyzingcrypto

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RE: LeoThread 2026-02-05 21-38

This market will shape future investing; the lessons learned remain important

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analyzingcrypto

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RE: LeoThread 2026-02-05 21-38

It is hoped that people are doing okay There is more to life than the markets Some past decisions have been extremely poor, and mistakes continue to happen regularly

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analyzingcrypto

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RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

Calling anyone who believes the market is in a bear “ignoring the macro” is gaslighting. Those who repeatedly called for alt season over the past 4–5 years arguably ignored macro reality. Everyone looks

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

Had proponents of the business-cycle narrative called the top in Q4, their tone would be different now. Because they missed it, many keep the charade going by attacking dissenters.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

The same data can lead to different conclusions, and reaching a different conclusion doesn’t mean macro was ignored, despite claims to the contrary.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

It’s easy to pick a single macro indicator narrative, but the macro picture is complicated. No one group gets a monopoly on using macro to justify their views.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

SPX is near all-time highs, making it harder for the Fed to supply the liquidity needed to move crypto markets. Even if QT has ended, that isn’t dispositive—QT ended in 2019 and BTC still fell afterward.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

Unemployment typically rises into summer, which will likely need to be addressed soon. Hires, job openings, and quits are all very low.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

US interest rates remain above the 2-year yield, approximated here as the neutral rate. If that holds, policy is still restrictive and immediate rate cuts seem unlikely.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

Many expect global M2 to expand from here. One view holds it will top within a few months and then decline as the DXY rallies. Historically, BTC tops before M2; in the last cycle BTC bottomed shortly after

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-04 21-13

There are a ton of macro indicators to follow besides the ISM. One ISM-based view drew pushback from about ten different macro analysts. Other macro indicators that affect crypto deserve discussion.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 23-08

If manufacturing stocks do well this year, BTC could improve next year as the broader economy strengthens?

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 23-08

Some are citing ISM strength as justification for being bullish on Bitcoin That same data actually makes a stronger case for being bullish on manufacturing stocks instead

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

Example showing the ISM can be a poor predictor of BTC price action: Jan 2019 ISM: 55.7 BTC: $3,700 June 2019 ISM: 51.3 BTC: $13,900 Over these six months the ISM fell while BTC rose roughly 4x

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

As the saying goes, "the stock market is not the economy." In this case: Bitcoin is not the economy

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

This should be read as educational rather than an attack. Many have lost significant capital relying on single economic indicators, and risk-asset price action does not always align with macro data

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

There’s a plausible scenario where the ISM rises in 2026 (as in 2014) while BTC falls. In fact, a red year for BTC with a rising ISM is a realistic outcome

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

A single data point does not make a trend. Relying on one indicator like the ISM to confirm a supercycle is risky Note this: Jan 2014 ISM: 52.5 Jan 2026 ISM: 52.6

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

Jan 2015 ISM: 54 BTC Price: $322 The ISM dropped into 2015 but BTC rose. Using the ISM alone in 2014 or 2015 would have produced the wrong expectations

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

The ISM rose from 52.5 to 55.7 in 2014, while BTC fell from $737 to $302. Anyone tracking both that year would have found the divergence maddening Now 2015 (bear market ended Jan 2015) Dec 2014 ISM: 48.8

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