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2025-01-16 03:09

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analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-11 09-16

A sobering reality for crypto: Over long horizons, most assets tend to flow toward Bitcoin Alts flow into BTC Mining equities flow into BTC Public crypto stocks flow into BTC

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analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-10 20-13

Why isn't that token listed? Every exchange has its own listing framework (which may change over time)

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analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-10 20-13

DEX listing all tokens is good. CEX listing all tokens is bad? 🤷‍♂️ Exchanges should provide access to everything. This line will likely get some heat.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-10 20-13

The point about access is valid — it absolutely matters. But incentives matter too. A DEX is neutral infrastructure. A CEX is a branded, custodial platform. Long-term legitimacy depends on how those incentives

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

Historically, many BTC countertrend rallies in midterm years have peaked in early March

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

Some relief is showing up in the cryptoverse BTC typically gains strength shortly after 50% drawdowns That strength commonly lasts from a few days to a few weeks

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

5/ Every analyst needs a framework aligned with their psychology and time horizon. No framework works 100% of the time. What matters is doing the work, building a thesis, testing it, and evolving it. Several

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

4/ None of this changes the long-term view: BTC remains core and blockchains are becoming integral global infrastructure. AI agents will need permissionless, programmable rails; incumbents won't finish

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

3/ A deeper, common failure: market psychology treated BTC/crypto as an ATM rather than a utility. When the primary use case is "number go up" and price detaches from utility, markets distort.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

2/ The gap between thesis and price can widen much more than anticipated. Short horizons mean price is all that matters. Marginal liquidity proved far more finite than expected: simultaneous events repriced

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

BTC remained a core holding; peripheral positions were derisked in Sept/Oct but more could have been done. Liquidity models suggested holding, yet technicals were decisively bearish and action was

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

Expectations of a Fed pivot (end of QT → "Reserves Management") materialized. The business cycle inflected higher (ISM 48 → 52.6). A "normal" 25–30% pullback was expected; the market

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

1/ The BTC crash prompts deep self-reflection. This is a review of the last four months from the peak. Price action was clear after the $90K breakdown in January, though signs appeared as early as September.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

Candid, courageous posts like this are preferable to guarded commentary. Public calls that miss the mark tend to change internal approaches, making future views more informed, better articulated, and more

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

Markets can remain irrational for extended stretches and don't always have to make sense on shorter timeframes. This candid analysis deserves credit and merits attention going forward.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

When positioned on the wrong side of the market, it's important to learn what was missed and extract lessons from the experience.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-06 19-53

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