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2025-01-16 03:09

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analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

2014 (midterm, bear market) Jan 2014 ISM: 52.5 BTC Price: $737 Dec 2014 ISM: 55.7 BTC Price: $302

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analyzingcrypto

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RE: LeoThread 2026-02-03 01-17

This year a big shift has occurred toward using the ISM to predict Bitcoin's price, especially after many supercycle narratives faltered A clear example shows why the ISM does not necessarily determine

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analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

The stance is opposition to what crypto has become, not to its potential; support is for what it could be, with an expectation that much of the garbage will be flushed out this year

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

Many people label critics as "anti-crypto" simply for stating uncomfortable truths Crypto has become a vehicle for "get rich quick" schemes, and when those practices are challenged

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

Focusing on actual price trends tends to be more useful than chasing narratives That approach often leads to the same conclusion: news matters less and narratives follow price

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

Price trends can be used to craft a narrative, but a narrative cannot create a price trend Because mania predictions are rarely challenged, many end up holding worthless investments while chasing the next

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

Regardless of the position, a narrative can usually be found to support it This is narrative chasing — narrative follows price, not the other way around

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

Last year the argument revolved around M2 and the claim that BTC had to follow M2, even though BTC typically tops before M2 This year the ISM is being used in the same way M2 was

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-02 07-33

A common mistake among investors who bet on crypto manias is the inability to clearly state an alternative view When a forecast fails within the given timeframe, the timeline gets shifted and new reasons

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-01 07-37

Part of building wealth is surviving drawdowns so there is capital available for future investments Managing drawdowns in a portfolio allows the upside to eventually take care of itself

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-01 07-37

Many people are citing Bitcoin's RSI as evidence the bear market has already ended. RSI alone is a poor indicator. It must be used with other indicators to have any value at all.

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-01 01-12

Bitcoin tends to do well in risk-on environments with ample liquidity, while Gold tends to do well in risk-off environments with tighter liquidity

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-02-01 01-12

The reason many are drawn to Bitcoin is the same reason many are drawn to Gold: debasement of fiat currencies

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-31 04-23

Many expect perfection, but perfection doesn't exist

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-31 04-23

Sometimes people assume that unless a view is adjusted on the exact day of a market top or bottom, they're locked into the new trend for years Most of a trend can be captured without timing every single

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-31 04-23

Don’t be afraid to pivot. So many people just keep waiting for “alt season” they end up missing years of gains in other asset classes. It’s ok to have things besides extremely high risk investments

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-31 04-23

It's easy to wait for markets to drop and say pivoting was wrong, but alts are down against almost everything since that message

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-31 04-23

Advice to pivot out of alts has been given for years Even those who exited alts earlier this month ended up glad they did

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-31 04-23

It was predictable that after the first drop in metals, attention would circle back to this Since advice not to be afraid to pivot on ALTs, ALTs are down 15% against Gold 12% against Silver 8% against

analyzingcrypto

7M

RE: LeoThread 2026-01-30 02-36

Thanks, it's all about riding out the storm - patience has its rewards

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